He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). This county voted with the popular vote each time. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Watauga has gone for. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. In communities . The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Click here, for more. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. What, if anything, did we miss? The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Election night is going to be information overload. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. What science tells us about the afterlife. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. 4. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Ron Elving . In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Telegram Telegram White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Republicans have paid some attention. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Outstanding. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. . It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. All Rights Reserved. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Not a bad streak. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? 2020 Election (1210) All rights reserved. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. They simply vote on merit. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. our Gitlab account where you can Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. It gets a lot more interesting. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Do you know this baby? In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. 11. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama.
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